Toward more ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution

The Republic of North Macedonia, a non-Annex I party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), ratified Paris Agreement in November 2017, with the following contribution to the global efforts for GHG emissions reduction (Macedonian NDC): “To reduce the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels combustion for 30%, that is, for 36% at a higher level of ambition, by 2030 compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario.” The focus of the Macedonian NDC is put on climate change mitigation, that is, on policies and measures which lead to GHG emissions reduction, and particularly to CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels combustion which covers almost 80% of the total GHG emissions in the country. The following sectors are of dominant share: energy supply, buildings and transport.

                                                                                     Source: www.klimatskipromeni.mk

Meanwhile a number of context-changing developments both, at national and at international have occurred which will shape the revised Macedonian NDC.  Let us start with the national ones.

Second Biennial Update Report (SBUR) was submitted to the UNFCCC while the Third Biennial Update Report (TBUR) is in final phase of preparation.  Also, the National Strategy for Energy Development up to 2040 (Energy Strategy) was adopted in December 2019 and is the first strategy of an Energy Community Country which is based on the five pillars of the EU Energy Union -  Security, solidarity and trust; A fully integrated internal energy market; Energy efficiency; Decarbonizing the economy; Research, innovation and competitiveness. Hence, the Energy Strategy depicts three scenarios - Reference, Moderate Transition and Green which reflect different dynamics of energy transition and enable flexibility into Macedonian response to relevant EU policies and governance for modern, competitive and climate-neutral economy by 2050.

All these documents are based on the robust analytical work and consultations with the relevant ministries and other relevant stakeholders aimed at identification and validation of possible mitigation policies and measures in the target sectors, prioritization of identified policies and measures and providing directions for development of mitigation scenarios, as well as, identification and validation of the assumptions used for the modelling of scenarios. Therefore, it can be safely concluded that the capacity, both analytical and institutional, and the participatory process, which have been created even before the Macedonian NDC, and maintained and enhanced over the SBUR, Energy strategy and the TBUR timelines are strong entry points for the forthcoming revision of the NDC.

In terms of the deliveries of these documents, there are four things worth mentioning.

Furthermore, at national level, worth mentioning as contribution and entry point to the revised NDC is the ongoing project entitled “Law and Strategy on Climate Change,” which has been programmed under the EU Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA II) funding mechanism and is to deliver the Long-term Climate Action Strategy and a Law on Climate Action . Also, the country has commenced preparation of its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) which will be based on the Enhanced Scenario with Additional Measures (e-WAM) from the TBUR, or in other words, Green Scenario from Energy Strategy augmented with the PAMs from the Industry, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use and Waste sectors.

Internationally, under Paris Agreement, an invitation to the parties is issued to pursue the efforts for keeping global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. The parties will have to respond with considerably enhanced NDCs. Also, international support for NDC revision is made available to the countries, such as UNDP support through Climate Promise initiative. As an example of enhanced ambition is the European Commission which presented a long-term strategic vision to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, showing how Europe can lead the way to climate neutrality by midcentury – an economy with net-zero GHG emissions. The EU ambition should be reflected adequately in the contributions of the aspiring countries for EU membership.

Furthermore, the energy transition is happening with an accelerated pace - renewables are growing fastest even as fossil fuels continue to dominate and clean technologies are opening up major new opportunities for industry and investors, even if capital markets are slower to align with the climate economy. Both solar and wind power are becoming significantly more competitive. On top, the sinking demand for oil caused by the coronavirus pandemic combined with a cruel price war has left the fossil fuel industry broken and in survival mode. It seems that with COVID-19 the world was just handed a once in a lifetime opportunity to fundamentally alter the energy landscape.

Definitely, the revised Macedonian NDC will capitalize on the capacities, participatory practice, experience, tools and knowledge base that have been created even before the original Macedonian NDC, and maintained and enhanced over the SBUR, Energy Strategy and the TBUR timelines. The elaborated national and international developments have open up possibilities for more ambitious contribution in terms of expected GHG emission reductions since it can articulate economy-wide target with mitigation PAMs from all GHG emitting sectors and covering all GHGs. For Energy sector, it can be based on the most ambitious scenario from the Energy Strategy, that is the Green scenario (lots of renewables and enhanced energy efficiency). The target setting can be well-informed by the existing robust and comprehensive GHG inventory. Furthermore, the revised Macedonian NDC can weave the sustainable development into its PAMs, showing the synergies between sustainable development and climate change mitigation. It can create possibility to quantify the contribution of the mitigation action to the national SD agenda, particularly to its social dimension through jobs created with realization of the mitigation PAMs. Last but not least, the current accomplishments regrading gender aspect will help fostering not only gender sensitive, but also gender responsive NDC.

Goes without saying that the partnership science – policy-making, supported by all relevant stakeholders, is a prerequisite for informed, ambitious and comprehensive NDC. In Macedonian case, this partnership and cooperation with the stakeholders have been nurtured since the beginning. No reason not to be so with the revised Macedonian NDC.